I’ve written a lot about eBay Inc. (EBAY) this year, mostly about GameStop Corp.’s (GME) rejection of a bid to acquire it. eBay’s bigger story is unfolding within its app.
If you’ve opened eBay recently, you may have found that live streaming is easier to find. According to TechCrunch, in July this year, eBay canceled eBay Live’s invitation-only rule. Qualified sellers in more than 300 categories ranging from electronics to fashion are now online.
This makes eBay’s first live sales holiday season so widely open. Last year, eBay touted its live holiday lineup as its largest ever.
Timing is important because eBay is growing again. Total merchandise sales (the value of all merchandise sold on the site) grew 15% in the second quarter to $22.4 billion, according to its financial report.
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Iannone attributes some of the credit to field sales. He told analysts in August that Live could “deepen engagement, expand discovery and increase speed” on eBay, TechCrunch reported.
Also read: Rejected $56B takeover bid just saved GameStop’s quarterly results
Wall Street is taking notice, too. Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather ranked eBay as a top pick for the company on Monday, October 12, 2026, according to a research report shared by TheStreet. He raised his price target to $132 Starting at $127.
His report, “The Missing Link: Why Live Streaming Is Already Driving eBay’s Growth,” estimates that live sales will contribute about 40% to eBay’s growth this year. The problem is that eBay doesn’t own the market it’s chasing.
Live shoppers are turning eBay into a trading floor
“Think of eBay as the New York Stock Exchange of garage sales,” Feather writes. Most shoppers once purchased items and kept them. Live auctions have increased the number of short-term traders who buy cards live and then relist them on eBay for a profit.
It wasn’t the price target that stopped me in my notes. This is a survey of approximately 2,000 US consumers. More than half of in-person shoppers resell their purchases at least sometimes.
This is important because eBay charges a fee every time something sells. Even if no new shoppers arrive, a card that changes hands three times will generate three sales.
The same survey found that on-site shoppers spent an average of $316 per month. This habit helps explain how eBay grew without adding many new buyers.
The report said the stock entered near the top of its 52-week range on Monday. The stock rose about 4% that afternoon.
The momentum is real, but expanding this engine would put eBay on a collision course with a dominant startup that still controls much of the instant market.
Imgermann/Getty Images
The $20 billion rival still owns the format
According to the report, Whatnot is a private startup that, according to its own estimates, occupies about 60% of the Western live streaming shopping market. According to Morgan Stanley’s calculations, eBay Live’s market share is about 8%.
Whatnot raised $545 million in August at a $20 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg. According to Retail Insight Network, more than 650,000 people sign up every week. This is the audience eBay wants this holiday season.
However, eBay will make a profit even if the auction takes place on Whatnot. Winners often flip their listings on eBay, where sellers stock their items before going online. Feather believes that the live market “has led to [eBay’s] Grow, not just relate to. “
This creates a risk that is easily overlooked. eBay’s performance now depends in part on competitors’ marketing budgets. This note indicates that Whatnot’s user growth has begun to slow down.
Shoppers should know what they are bidding on. In Cards “Broken” and “Repacked,” buyers pay for the chance to get whatever’s in the box, which the description says is speculative. Fortune magazine reported that Whatnot faced concerns about gambling-related spending, even though the company said it prohibited gambling-related activities.
Most on Wall Street isn’t as optimistic as Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley’s enthusiasm is not consensus. 17 of the 32 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis rate eBay an A catchthe average price target is close to $116.
According to StockAnalysis, a recent conference call showed this gap:
- Overweight, target $132: Morgan Stanley’s Feather raised his target on Monday.
- Buy, target $137: Wedbush’s Ygal Arounian raised his goal in August.
- Hold, target $115: Bernstein’s Nikhil Devnani was steady Monday.
- Sell, target $91: Wells Fargo’s Ken Gawrelski lowered his target on Monday.
The disagreement is over durability. Morgan Stanley views collectibles as a cyclical risk asset. The report found that card prices tend to rise as small-cap stocks rise and fall as real interest rates rise.
The outlook for eBay itself suggests cooling. The company expects third-quarter GMV growth of 10% to 12%, including the newly acquired Depop, according to an August filing.
More bank stock resets:
- Goldman Sachs resets Nike stock target after brand disappointment
- Morgan Stanley resets AMAT stock price target to $79
- Bank of America resets AMD price target after major milestone
Morgan Stanley sees room for eBay’s live bets to work
Feather’s key assumption is that eBay Live will account for about 22% of the live streaming market by 2030. In the short term, he expects 2027 profit guidance to be better than expected and sales figures to remain stable as comparisons intensify.
His bull market view puts the stock at $237 If by 2030, live shopping will become a market worth $100 billion. His pessimistic view is based on a consumer slowdown, placing it at $70.
The note also believes that live streaming shopping is a form of entertainment, rather than a chore that people leave to artificial intelligence for purchasing. If this holds true, then live video could serve as a hedge against the next shift in online retail.
This holiday season is the first real test of eBay’s open stakes. If successful, eBay won’t charge fees just because its competitors prosper. It will have a bigger piece.
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