GDP growth is now considered solid; nowcasted “core GDP” went gangbusters. The initial release will be discussed by Jim tomorrow…
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow from 10/38 (light blue square), NY Fed now 10/23 (inverted red triangle), EconVitals now 10/28 (green +), WSJ average survey (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, calculated by linking nowcasted releases in 2326Q2. Sources: BEA, 2026Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, October WSJ survey, EconVitals, and author’s calculations.
Remember, the GDP calculation subtracts imports because GDP is the sum of all domestic production. Jason Furman, among others, has focused on final sales to private domestic buyers (under the moniker “core GDP”) as a measure of aggregate demand trends. This measure is now given by the Atlanta Fed to continue to grow at a rapid pace, 4.7% (q / q AR), compared to 4.6% in Q2.
Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic buyers (bold black), and GDPNow nowcast (light blue box), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, calculated by repeating the growth now released in the 3rd release 2026Q2. Sources: BEA, 2026Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, October WSJ survey, EconVitals, and author’s calculations.
Current consumption will grow by 3.3% q/q AR, while equipment investment will grow by 20.9% (compared to 13.4% in Q2).