Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of President Trump, and veteran Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will vie for the top job in Latin America’s economic powerhouse on October 25.
Brasilia’s electoral court said neither the 80-year-old current president, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of the former president voted. President Jair Bolsonaro will receive more than 50% of the total votes required to win outright.
The Brazilian Electoral Tribunal in Brasilia showed that Bolsonaro received slightly more than 56 million votes and Lula received 53.7 million votes, with a declared vote rate of 99.8%.
Bolsonaro addressed the media and a small crowd of supporters outside his residence in Brasilia, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and a woman wrapped in an Israeli flag.
“Brazil wants change, and this is the interpretation of what is happening today,” Bolsonaro said. “This is the end of the Workers’ Party era,” he added, referring to Lula’s party.
Lula sought encouragement ahead of his tough battle to defeat Bolsonaro in the runoff, saying the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.
“Tomorrow we will start a new campaign,” Lula said. “I performed well in the knockout stages. We’ll see who has the best plan.”
Trump allies performed well in recent elections in Latin America, including Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru. Lula accused the U.S. government of trying to influence Bolsonaro’s election by imposing tariffs, revoking the visa of the country’s ambassador in Washington and imposing sanctions on government officials and a Supreme Court judge.
The Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on whether it was trying to interfere with the vote.
The next presidential term will begin on January 5, 2027. The winner will take charge of Latin America’s largest economy and population of 214 million. A Bolsonaro victory would increase U.S. influence in Latin America. If Lula wins, Brazil will distance itself from Washington and continue to deepen ties with China.
Lula faces an uphill battle
Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach out to moderate voters who did not support them in the first round. Ronaldo Cajado and Renan Santos, two candidates with moderate support in Sunday’s election, have previously said they would not support either bidder in the runoff.
With 21 days left in the campaign, Lula is expected to try to capitalize on the popularity of his social policies and the many legal woes of his rivals.
While the once-popular Lula’s approval ratings plummeted during his third term, confrontation with the United States gave him a boost. He still has a strong base of supporters who believe his social policies have improved the lives of millions of Brazilians.
But the current president faces an uphill battle amid an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that has ensnared judges investigating Bolsonaro.
Senator Bolsonaro may be tempted to push a message about affordability and tie the president to corruption scandals.
He pledged to crack down on Brazilian crime syndicates and insisted Brazil needed a better deal with the Trump administration, including in its rare minerals economy, which is second only to China. Bolsonaro is also working to free his father and return him to politics.
“Brazil needs change. Brazil cannot tolerate so much suffering,” he told reporters on Sunday at a polling center in Rio de Janeiro, where he cast his vote.
Both candidates face an image problem: About half of Brazil’s population disapproves of Bolsonaro’s family, and about half disapprove of Lula’s Workers’ Party, according to multiple polls.
Four years ago, Lula defeated then-incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.
Voters choose between incumbents or return to the right
“I feel calm but very sad about the results,” said 65-year-old Alvaro Senra, a history professor in Rio de Janeiro and a Lula supporter who watched the vote count in a bar with friends. “I think it’s the result of conservatives working under the radar, including the neo-Pentecostal churches. But I think Lula can still win.”
Earlier in the day, Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old mobile phone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro’s eldest son because she wanted to be able to express her evangelical religious beliefs freely. She hopes he will follow in his father’s footsteps.
“I voted for his father and I don’t regret it,” she said.
Photographer Lorena Zschaber, 40, saw the results in an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in central Rio de Janeiro, worrying about the close proximity to her father. During her father’s presidency, “people were more accepting of discrimination,” she said.
“I’m an LGBTQ+ woman and I can’t think of anything worse than the election of Flavio Bolsonaro,” she added.
Rosangela Resende da Rocha, 69, a former stay-at-home mother, said she supported Lula’s social policies to help “the less fortunate” and how he stood up to Trump.
“That crazy guy wants to come here and buy our country so our country will be like over there,” she said at a voting center in Brasilia. “If Lula wins, he won’t succeed.”
Confidence in Brazil’s electronic voting system
No major fraud has been detected since Brazil adopted an electronic voting system in the 1990s.
The Organization of American States’ electoral observation mission reported on Sunday that “voting was proceeding smoothly and security conditions were adequate.” Electoral authorities have guaranteed that electronic voting is secure and verifiable.
“With almost three hours until the end of the polls, everything is proceeding normally and with the highest level of transparency,” Cassio Núñez Marquez, president of the High Electoral Court, said on Sunday afternoon. He added that there were “no concrete signs of international interference”.
Voters appear largely confident that the country’s voting system cannot be tampered with.
Josemar Lauriano Pereira, a 46-year-old lawyer in Rio de Janeiro, said getting results quickly would help combat fraud and uncertainty.
“When results take a long time, people cast doubt on the results and say there’s a problem,” he said.