Most people who own Nebius stock will be paying attention to its chart. Little attention is paid to the bond prices of its closest rivals. Those bond prices impacted stock prices on Wednesday without any comment from Nebius.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS), which rents GPU computing power to artificial intelligence developers, fell 10.1% to $186.01 Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The closing price broke the $200 lower limit.
According to Seeking Alpha, Donovan Jackson of Chart Reports a day ago called $200 the line between a rebound and a faster decline.
The sell-off started elsewhere. According to CNBC, the yield on CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) bonds climbed to 15% amid concerns that artificial intelligence developers are borrowing too much. CoreWeave fell more than 15%, and fear jumped directly to its closest competitors.
Jackson pointed out this weakness. He said Nebius’s breakout from a tight chart pattern despite the Nasdaq’s all-time high suggests the market is not supportive of a rebound.
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CoreWeave’s Bonds Downturn sets the standard for Neocloud
CoreWeave is paying 9.625% on the notes due in 2032, but buyers are now demanding a 14.8% yield, which is what lenders require to hold the notes, according to CNBC. This is a warning to every new cloud company leasing artificial intelligence computing power, because lenders rarely judge them in isolation.
According to Nebius’ shareholder letter, the company raised $775 million in its first secured loan in July at a cost just 2.5 percentage points below the benchmark SOFR rate. It is supported by contracts with investment grade clients.
Nebius plans to increase borrowing and any unsecured bonds it sells now will be priced at CoreWeave’s 14.8% rate, the letter said.
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Nebius’ share price is also its cost of capital
Nebius has relied on convertible notes, bonds that can later be converted into stock. The company sold about $10 billion in products between March and August, company filings show. Buyers exchange coupons for stock gains as low as 0.50%.
This makes share price a financing indicator. The pricing release showed shares in the larger August series would exchange for about $313 per share, about 68% higher than Wednesday’s closing price. The further below that price the stock price falls, the more the notes behave like ordinary debt.
The March notes are closer to the edge, converting at about $180 to $183 per share, company filings show. If the stock stays below that range until expiration, Nebius is owed cash, not stock.
Nebius also sold 12.7 million shares at an average price of $223.60 through June, according to the letter. As of Wednesday’s close, the amount raised per new share was about 17% less, making future equity raises more dilutive.
This is what the sell-off misses. About 70% of transactions in the second quarter included customer prepayments, accounting for 50% to 60% of related capital expenditures, the letter said. Nebius expects such payments to exceed $9 billion in 2026, a sum that does not depend on bondholder sentiment.
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Nebius stock performance after sell-off
Jackson noted that Nebius shares are down about 27% from last week’s high of nearly $255. Its 52-week range ranged from $73.52 to a record $299.86 set in June, according to StockAnalysis.
Nebius’s lowest point occurred on Monday, October 21, 2024, the first day it returned to the Nasdaq. Reuters reported that the stock fell about 26% before the opening bell before closing at $20. It’s still trading at more than nine times its closing price.
Valuations leave little room for barriers to raising capital. StockAnalysis data shows Nebius trades at about 38 times historical sales and 7 times forward sales. As $200 disappears, next is the 200-day moving average near $173, according to the same data.
Wall Street didn’t blink. 22 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis rate Nebius a purchasethe average target is $283.60 USDup about 52% from Wednesday’s closing price. Targets range from $84 to $410, so the debate is far from over.
The latest calls all precede Wednesday’s bond scare:
- Buy, target $304: Rosenblatt Securities’ John McPeake began reporting on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
- Sell: Rothschild & Co Redburn’s Alexander Haissl started reporting on Friday, September 25, 2026.
- Upgraded to Outperform, with price target raised to $399 from $260: Stefan Slowinski from Exane BNP Paribas moved on Thursday, September 24, 2026.
Cheap money is now the scarcest investment for GPU landlords
Demand is not the issue. Nebius’s shareholder letter showed that revenue surged 454% in the second quarter. However, deals signed during the quarter mainly boosted revenue in 2027, while capital expenditures during the quarter were approximately $5.7 billion.
This gap is where interest rates come into play. Debt-laden artificial intelligence stocks fell on Wednesday as bets on higher U.S. interest rates grew, Reuters reported. Nebius now responds almost as much to the Fed as it does to its customers.
The next phase of this trade may reward those who can still borrow cheaply, rather than those who build fastest. Nebius will report third-quarter results on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, according to StockAnalysis estimates.
The number to watch is how many of the 2027 buildout customers are upfront, because every dollar upfront is something Nebius never borrowed at the price of CoreWeave.
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