Every midterm election cycle has at least two narratives: one that drives the conversation toward Election Day, and the other that follows and is followed by the blame game.
When it became clear that there was no quick solution to the Iran problem, the narrative began to coalesce in the run-up to this year’s election, and it was solidified when Abdul-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic primary. The 2026 election will pit a group of unabashedly progressive Democrats against Republicans embattled by the White House’s poor messaging on the war and subsequent affordability crisis.
We won’t know the second narrative until the votes are counted, although it will likely revolve around blaming Trump and the DSA for both parties’ performance.
But while we wait, allow me to suggest a different way of looking at the midterm elections.
Republicans have focused much of their attention on the most progressive Democrats on the ballot — El-Sayed and James Talarico of Texas, and Graham Plattner of Maine. Remarkably, these unabashedly left-wing candidates succeeded without hiding much of their radicalism.
But overall, Democrats won because they nominated more moderate candidates like Marci Kaptur and Josh Turek who were willing to stand with Republicans on transgender issues and protecting women’s sports. Meanwhile, Republicans are setting themselves up for unnecessary hardship by nominating less than inspiring candidates.
This short-sighted behavior could cost them one, if not two, Houses of Congress. But it also gives them a chance to organize for success during Trump’s lame-duck two-year period. Democrats, meanwhile, are gleefully following the same path that got Republicans into trouble. If they are not careful, they may soon find themselves in a political crisis of their own making. If Republicans are smart, they will use this to their advantage.
Welcome to the Freaky Friday election.
The Republican Party’s fondness for outside candidates is nothing new. But when the ultimate political outsider was elected president in 2016, the stakes changed forever. George W. Bush or Mitt Romney can no longer claim to be outsiders. To do that, you need to stay alien to the scene, stay away from anything that smacks of the establishment, and boldly and unabashedly make MAGA great.
Check out the Daily Wire midterm hub
The first wave of candidates who fit that bill are truly impressive: JD Vance, Josh Hawley, James Comer, Russ Vought. But that’s the way it is in Washington, and these outsiders quickly become insiders. They have day jobs and a large community of like-minded people who work in their offices and work on their campaigns.
As a result, Republicans continue to drift away from the mainstream. In 2022, ideological hardliners like Blake Masters and Kari Lake secured the nomination, but they failed to build a winning coalition. Republicans had a breakout year in 2024 thanks to the Trump wave, but this year they once again find themselves the victim of their own purity test.
When Republican voters — encouraged in large part by the president — attack incumbents like John Cornyn for their sins, the party’s remaining candidates have no guarantee of electability. Ken Paxton has his merits, but the fact of the matter is that his candidacy puts the trans-loving vegan within striking distance of becoming Texas’ first Democratic senator since 1993.
I don’t think Republicans face truly catastrophic losses. But they have much more to lose if they have a better slate of candidates and a smarter electoral strategy. The good news for the party is that this election can serve as a wake-up call.
The MAGA movement is now at the heart of the Republican Party, not the fringes. Republicans need to accept this if they hope to win in 2028 and beyond. If former Senator and now Vice President J.D. Vance runs as an outsider, his rhetoric will be wrong for Americans. The same is true on the ballot. Instead, Republicans can win big if they can think strategically, make deals with powerful incumbents instead of undermining them, and focus their energy on defeating Democrats instead of upending what’s left of the “establishment.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are in the early stages of that process. They chose to escape their post-Kamara fears by placating the far left of the party. Spurred by podcasters like Hasan Piker and backed by pollsters who weighted or fudged results in favor of radicals like El-Sayed and Francesca Hong, Democrats fielded perhaps the most liberal candidate in the party’s history.
Make no mistake: It will pay off on Tuesday. The 120th Congress is likely to include 10 DSA members and one senator who refuses to denounce the Muslim Brotherhood.
But what happens when the dust settles and committee assignments are assigned?
If Democrats narrowly take the House, Hakeem Jeffries — who has allowed radical members of his caucus to hold him hostage as minority leader — will find himself struggling to lead effectively while appeasing radicals. Once he has the temerity to have lunch with a Republican, Democrats turn on him. Suddenly, the gentleman from New York might be regretting the 15 rounds of giggles he put into getting Kevin McCarthy elected speaker.
Of course, the Senate is not threatened by such an insurrection. But that doesn’t mean it won’t cause headaches for Democrats.
El-Said, Talarico and vote-fixer Marie Pertola will make papal remarks in the upper chamber, pushing their parties to the left just in time for the official start of the 2028 primaries. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff will vie for presidential support, while Rahm Emanuel uses them as a foil for his moderate, pragmatic liberalism. Establishment figures like Chuck Schumer and moderates like John Fetterman will be their targets, and there will be no end to the Parkers of the world.
Sound familiar?
Reports of political realignment have generally been exaggerated. But after the 2028 elections, it is increasingly likely that we will find a shift in the positions of the two parties. The Democratic Party’s slide into uncontrollable, unelectable extremism seems inevitable. Whether Republicans will use this to their advantage remains to be seen. If they are smart, they will take advantage of the opportunity. If not, 2030 will be a strange cycle indeed.