Headlines (Bloomberg) notes a rise in the Conference Board Confidence Index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remained low, as did Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all downgraded and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line on “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line on US-Iran war. Sources: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), and author’s calculations.
The breakdown between current conditions and expectations shows that expectations remain at a low level.
