Undecided voters are making up their minds in the tight U.S. Senate race between Iowa Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson, but the race remains close even as more Iowans decide which candidate to choose.
Iowa is one of the most competitive Senate races this year, with Turek and Hinson vying for the seat left vacant by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. After the first debate on Oct. 7, polls continued to show a tight race between the two men, with tariffs, immigration and voting records playing important roles. A second debate took place last week, with the two candidates again feuding over the Iran war, tariffs and immigration.
Early in the campaign, the share of undecided voters was high, sometimes reaching double digits. Independent voters who are not registered with a specific political party make up a significant portion of the state’s electorate, and they are among the most likely to choose to split their votes at the ballot box on Election Day. Although the number of undecided voters has declined, the narrow margin between Turek and Hinson remains stable, with both candidates in the lead according to polls.
newsweek Both campaigns were contacted via email Monday for comment.
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: What the latest polls say
The most recently released poll, conducted between October 13 and 15 by conservative pollster Trafalgar Group, asked 1,094 likely voters. Among them, nearly 46% said they planned to vote for Hinson, while 44% said they planned to vote for Turek. More than 6% were undecided. However, the share of undecideds among 1,089 likely voters has declined since the last Iowa Senate polls in Trafalgar (September 16-18). Although Hinson also led Turek by two points at the time, 44% to 42%, more than 10% of voters were still undecided.
Marist polls in September and October showed a similar pattern.
A September Marist poll of 1,050 registered Iowa voters between Sept. 17 and 20 found 5% were undecided, while an October poll of 1,100 registered voters found 4% still undecided. In the September poll, Turek led Hinson 50% to 42%, while in the October poll, Turek led Hinson 48% to 45% by 3 percentage points.
A YouGov poll showed one of the most significant shifts among undecided voters. In October, a poll of 2,245 likely voters conducted between October 6 and 12 found that 4% of pollsters were still undecided, 47% said they planned to vote for Turek, and 46% said they planned to vote for Hinson. The number of undecided voters has dropped significantly since YouGov released its September polling data, in which 11% of 2,169 registered voters surveyed between September 3 and 8 said they were undecided. In the September poll, 44% said they would vote for Turek and 43% said they would vote for Hinson.
“The competition is so tight, it’s hard to know how those who are undecided will win,” said John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. newsweek on Monday. “On this thorny issue, turnout may determine the outcome more than undecideds. Will Republicans turn out in enough numbers to get Hinson across the finish line? Or are Democrats so motivated that they turn out in record numbers to lead Turek to victory?”
Both scenarios are possible, Gill said, warning that with the race so close, polls “lack the precision to determine how things will break down.”
Will there be another debate in Iowa?
There will be no more Iowa debates between Hinson and Turek. The candidates agreed to hold two debates on October 7 and October 13.
President Donald Trump will travel to Iowa in the coming weeks for two political rallies supporting Hinson. Trump is scheduled to visit Iowa on October 22 and November 1.
When is Election Day?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, but early voting has begun in Iowa and will continue through November 2. Tracking records released by NBC News show that 2% of Iowa’s more than 2 million registered voters have already voted early.
Why is Iowa an important state in the 2026 midterm elections?
This year’s midterm elections could flip control of the House and Senate as Republican candidates work to overcome widespread voters’ concerns about the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the war with Iran. Although Iowa has voted Republican in Senate elections since 2008, the state also has a history of voting for presidential candidates from both parties, making the current political environment competitive. Trump has won Iowa in the past three election cycles, but before that, former President Barack Obama won it twice.
Timothy Hagle, a professor at the University of Iowa and an expert on Iowa politics, said newsweek Undecided voters hold the key to this year’s Senate elections.
“My suspicion is that there are very few Democrats and very few Republicans among the undecided voters. That means the majority of them are unaffiliated voters,” he said Monday. “We’ve often seen in the past that most of the final deciders tend to go with one candidate in the race. That’s probably more likely when there’s an incumbent candidate in the race. Of course, the Iowa Senate races are wide open, so it’s probably not surprising to see them split more evenly.”
The last time Iowa had an open Senate seat, Ernst was running in 2014. Hagel said Iowa independents cast 45 percent of their votes for Ernst and 40 percent for her Democratic opponent, Bruce Braley.
Iowa is one of several Senate races this year, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Alaska, where the outcome could go either way.
“One thing to remember is that there’s going to be a wave in this election that will determine the final outcome,” Gill told newsweek. “Of the eight close Senate races this year, it’s unlikely that they will each win four. It’s more likely that there will be partisanship that leaves one party winning about six or so close seats.”
He continued: “As in 2024, Trump won all the key states by narrow margins. There was a 2-point red shift in his approval rating that put him in a position to win the presidency. It looks like there will be a blue wave in 2026. But only if the polls are correct and we know enough to recognize the underlying trends that polls may be missing among voters.”
Newsweek reporters and editors used our artificial intelligence assistant Martyn to produce this story. Learn more about Martin here. Please contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemmon.