Susan Collins is worried—and she should be. As a politician who has only run for office once in his life and held the same seat for nearly 30 years, the Maine senator faces possible defeat in what looks increasingly like a coming big blue wave in the November midterm elections. As a rare Republican senator representing a blue state, she should be the first to get into trouble. But Collins is a rare figure: a virtual Houdini who always avoids defeat in tough elections. Whether she can work her magic again is one of the biggest questions in 2026.
At the start of this election cycle, Democrats had two competing strategies on how to defeat her. Senate Minority Leader Schumer is convinced that since more women than men vote in the state and Collins wins most of the vote, the answer is to find a Democratic woman who closely matches Collins’ profile. So he convinced Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, 79, to run for the seat. Progressives took the opposite approach, believing that young male populist outsiders could provide the contrast Mainers sought. So they recruited a lobster fisherman, Graham Platner. It soon became apparent that Schumer’s bet was wrong and that Plattner’s personality and message were more compelling. Mills’ heart wasn’t really in the game, so she quit quickly. But then Plattner was forced out of the race amid credible sexual assault accusations, and was replaced by another fair-minded worker type. Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation lumberjack who served as Senate president and was well-known in the state, emerged as something of a compromise candidate. Collins currently trails Jackson in most polls, although a respected New York Times/Portland Press/Siena poll released Thursday showed her slightly ahead.
While no one is counting their chickens, the environment appears to be favorable for Democrats. This is Collins’ first election since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade and decades of abortion rights. Since the senator effectively cast the deciding vote in 2018 to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, guaranteeing his mainstream credentials and assuring Americans that he believed Roe had “fixed the law,” the case also severely damaged her reputation as a moderate among many Maine voters, most of whom, remember, were women. Collins has since claimed she was “misled” by Kavanaugh, but she has refused to deny her vote.
What was once one of the senator’s selling points — her choice of positions — is now a liability. But it’s more than that. Collins went on to support 95 percent of Trump’s judicial nominees — which, to be fair, was roughly in line with her votes in previous administrations — including votes for anti-abortion judges, according to a Planned Parenthood analysis. She also voted against the Equality Act, which would have included sexual orientation and gender identity in civil rights laws, legislation she previously co-sponsored. For some voters who had previously supported her, it was a devastating decision.
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Another selling point of Collins to Mainers of all political persuasions is her commitment to bringing pork to the state as chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee. That power has been somewhat bipartisan in recent years following the revelations of plans like former Republican Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens’ infamous “Bridge to Nowhere,” but Collins has still managed to maintain that tradition, albeit in a more subtle way.
Throughout the campaign, Jackson painted Collins as a tool of the corrupt Republican swamp, tying her to Trump and the party’s overwhelming corruption. While it’s hard to know how much traction Jackson has gotten on the issue, last week he was gifted with a Pro Publica story alleging that Collins engaged in a dubious pay-to-play arrangement through a high-level Washington lobbyist close to her and her husband. (The New York Times reported this story.)
In short, the former CEO of a defense contractor told the FBI that he created a shell company to hide a $150,000 donation to a pro-Collins super PAC in exchange for her helping him secure millions in contracts that he also received. There is evidence that she not only knew about it but worked with others to achieve it. An initial FBI investigation in 2023 resulted in no charges, but new evidence is apparently leading the FBI into a larger investigation that the Trump Justice Department dropped as it purged agents and lawyers who worked on political corruption cases.
Collins insists she has done nothing wrong, but even as voters grow increasingly worried about government corruption, she has a dark cloud hanging over her head. It doesn’t help that she has been a constant source of support for Trump and his administration. She may have voted for him less than other Republican senators, but that’s not saying much since many of them were pretty much mindless rubber stamps. Collins certainly didn’t object to his unconstitutional usurpation of Congress’ fiscal powers, which is only going to get worse now that the president is entering his lame-duck period. Among her confirmation votes was one for Budget Director Russell Vought, the lead author of Plan 2025 who continues to make the case that Trump has the power and authority to eliminate congressional appropriations he doesn’t like.
Collins’ strong advocacy for the people of Maine is a long-time favorite of hers — she has seniority and power, and she will use it to their benefit. But she has shown no interest in using these tools to prevent Maine and the country from suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, it may come down to whether Mainers care more about Collins’ record of bringing back Bacon or saving the country from an evil government.
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About the 2026 Midterm Elections