Better to switch jobs than stay at the current gig if you want a raise.
“Wage growth for workers who are changing jobs will pick up again in 2026, although growth for those who remain will slow,” said Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, vice president of macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a LinkedIn post.
It is based on a 12-month moving average of average wage growth for job switchers and stayers tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta using Current Population Survey data.
The year-over-year wage growth for job switchers has been 4.4% for four straight months, while the growth for keeping jobs fell short, with a September estimate of 3.5%. The gap between the two groups narrowed last year, including a brief period where stayers actually saw slightly better wage growth than switchers. The new trend could be the start of a return to the historical norm of a healthy replacement premium.
“The first half of the year was an anomaly, and the low-rent environment is to blame,” said Chris Martin, senior economist at Glassdoor. “Job seekers have to take what they can get, and that often means compromise: less promotion and lower wages.”
However, some workers don’t have the luxury of switching jobs these days. The rate of quits has bounced between 1.9% and 2% for a little over the current year, far below the level of 3% a few years ago during the “Great Resignation,” suggesting a lack of confidence among workers. Openings were also slow and down from the March 2022 record of 7.5%.
“This premium hall for job switchers is an early sign of improving prospects for job seekers, although hiring rates remain low and job searches are picking up,” Martin said.
With job openings matching the unemployment rate, AI makes it easier to submit resumes, and losing their jobs in the white-collar sector, workers may find it difficult to say goodbye to their current roles.
“While job hopping still comes with higher pay, which is especially helpful for workers who feel the squeeze of inflation, opportunities to job hop are few and far between,” said ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud.
People can improve their experience when they are stuck in a role. Bachaud recommends learning AI skills, which may be useful in your current position or listed on your resume.
“For workers who feel stuck in their current position, it’s important not to fall into the trap of complacency,” says Bachaud. “Beyond wages, the labor market is changing rapidly as AI reshapes jobs.”
Whether you’re applying for a new, higher-paying job or looking for a raise from your current employer, it’s never a bad idea to publicize your accomplishments. People can “work out loud” and brag about their achievements and contributions to managers and colleagues as well as beyond the workplace, such as through LinkedIn posts.
“We stop ourselves from self-promotion because we think it’s bad, but self-promotion is the breadcrumbs that lead to titles and promotions and raises,” says Jasmine Escalera, a career expert with MyPerfectResume.