Statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) dated 10/29/2026 (original communication in French), by Laurent Ferrara (Chairman), and secretariatafse@gmail.com.
- The quarterly growth rate of French GDP released by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee) for the third quarter of 2026 is −0.1%. This follows a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter of 2026 and stagnation in the second quarter. According to some economic commentators, this sequence of numbers will indicate a “technical recession” in the French economy during the first three quarters of 2026.
- The French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) urges caution before declaring an economic recession. Based on the information currently available, the CDCEF considers that the necessary evidence to identify a recession in the French economy is not present at this stage.
- First, the GDP data provided by Insee is subject to revision. They can be substantially modified in the coming months, able to turn negative numbers into positive ones, because GDP growth figures for the first three quarters of 2026 are very close to zero. This is one of the reasons why CDCEF generally waits several months before obtaining a reliable assessment.
- More fundamentally, recognizing a recession cannot be reduced to observing two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. CDCEF based its assessment on the combined evaluation of three dimensions: duration, depth and spread of the decline in economic activity (3D rule). This approach shows some indicators to distinguish a genuine recession from a mere economic slowdown.
- Regarding the depth, the cumulative decline in GDP from the fourth quarter of 2025 remains very limited, around 0.3% according to the data available today. By way of comparison, economic activity contracted by about 3% during the recession following the first oil shock in 1973 and by 4% during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Although the difference in depth is not in itself a lot of dating criteria, they help put the current weakness in the activity into perspective. At this stage, it is more suggestive of prolonged stagnation or slowdown than a clear recession.
- Regarding the spread, among the variables considered by the Committee when assessing the recession, total employment is stable at a very high level (30.5 million), investment by non-financial companies has been on a plateau since 2023q3, and the capacity utilization rate has remained stable at around 81%. Only working hours fell slightly, 0.6% from the peak in 2024q3.
- The weakness of French economic activity in 2026 may be explained by sector-specific effects, in particular the decline in agricultural value added after an exceptional summer. drought. INSEE accounting for agricultural output throughout the production cycle, rather than just during harvest. As a result, large crop losses, especially corn, led to downward revisions to agricultural output estimates for the first and second quarters of 2026. These sectoral shocks help explain the observations. now Calm down.
- Overall, the data available to date do not support this recognize recession in the French economy through the first three quarters of 2026. However, they indicate a particularly sluggish activity, which evolution guarantee close monitoring. CDCEF reiterates its mission to recognize and business cycle dates change points through a strict examination of available information, instead of forecasting them. If the decrease in activity persists, deepen and spread to other sectors, the Committee will reassess the situation.
About the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCCEF)
Established in October 2020 under the umbrella of the French Economic Association (AFSE), the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) aims to establish and maintain a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for the French economy.
The committee uses the same business cycle definition as NBER for the United States and CEPR for the euro area as a whole. A business cycle is defined as a succession of periods of declining economic activity, i.e. negative economic growth (recession), and periods of increased activity, i.e. positive growth (expansion). These periods are delimited by peaks (highest activity levels) and troughs (lowest activity levels), which are the turning points of the cycle.
The methodology used by the CDCEF of AFSE to establish the historical chronology of business cycle turning points is described in detail in a working paper available on the AFSE website and published in French in the journal. Economic Review. The committee assesses the duration, depth and diffusion of each cycle phase (“3D” rule) and relies on two pillars: a quantitative pillar based on an econometric approach and a qualitative pillar based on expert judgment.
Member of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee
Laurent Ferrara, Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee, Professor at the SKEMA Business School, Member of the AFSE Executive Committee
Frédérique Bec, Professor at CY Cergy Paris Université, Research Affiliate in Thema and CREST-ENSAE
Guillaume Cléaud, Deputy Director of Economic Analysis and Forecasts, French Treasury
Claude Diebolt, CNRS Research Director at the BETA Research Center, Former AFSE President
Catherine Doz, Professor at the Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and the Paris School of Economics
Denis Ferrand, Director General of Rexecode, Vice President of the Société d’Economie Politique
Eric Heyer, Director of the Analysis and Forecasting Department, OFCE – French Economic Institute
Valérie Mignon, Professor at Université Paris Nanterre, Researcher at EconomiX-CNRS, Scientific Advisor at CEPII, Former President of AFSE
Pierre-Alain Pionnier, Economist, OECD