Private polling of Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico shows his race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas is much closer than the high-profile public surveys that put him ahead, a report released Saturday showed.
one new york times/The University of Siena poll in September and the CNN/SSRS poll conducted from October 20 to 27 showed Talarico leading by 6 points, but other recent surveys have shown him either tied with Paxton or leading by 2 points within the margin of error. People close to the campaign told The Wall Street Journal that the candidates’ internal data is consistent with the more rigorous investigation. Second-rate.
These people said internal polling may not fully reflect a particular group. The surveys “may not fully capture the sentiment of rural conservative voters who support Mr. Trump,” era The report cited people close to Talarico.
Travis County Democratic Party Chairman Luke Warford (Luke Warford) said: “I think James has a 50% chance of winning at best.” He said that for Texas Democrats, even a coin toss is phenomenal.
A Fox News poll in early October had Austin Democrats leading by 2 points, 51% to 49%, within the margin of error. A subsequent Fox poll showed the two tied at 49 points. Paxton has his strongest support from rural voters, white evangelical Christians and Texans 65 and older, something Talarico’s own camp fears may be missing from within its ranks.
The former middle school teacher’s path also passes through Latino communities, where he needs massive turnout. But they encountered an abiding loyalty to Trump and a distaste for Talarico, especially among Latino men, according to reports from Democratic lobbyists in San Antonio and El Paso. era.
The 37-year-old has spent the final stages trying to rephrase what he now calls “embarrassing” comments that God is “non-binary” and that there are six biological genders, which were featured in attack ads by opponents. People close to Paxton’s campaign acknowledge that there are still enough Trump supporters in Texas that, if they vote, they would determine the outcome in Paxton’s favor.
The campaign is the most expensive non-presidential campaign ever, with total spending exceeding $500 million, after Elon Musk donated $158 million to pro-Paxton groups. Texans vote Tuesday.