JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. — Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged Thursday that Republicans face an “uphill climb” in next month’s midterm elections, and the results could be a data point he reviews as he decides whether to run for president in 2028.
“Historically, there’s always been some uphill climb, and I think you can definitely feel that,” Vance told NBC News. “I also think you can feel a sense of cautious optimism in the sense that, you know, there’s a sense that the numbers are changing, maybe in our direction.”
“Politically, there’s a recognition that it’s always going to be difficult to win a midterm election when you have the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives all at the same time,” he added.
Vance spoke on board Air Force Two shortly after it landed on its way back from Lakeland, Florida, where he campaigned for Sen. Ashley Moody and Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds. It was his latest headline performance at a rally aimed at boosting support for the party’s candidates in what is expected to be a challenging year for Republicans.
In addition to the historical trends Vance mentioned, polling shows President Donald Trump and the war with Iran are deeply unpopular among voters. Related increases in natural gas prices have added to a host of affordability concerns. Americans are increasingly skeptical of artificial intelligence and the massive, power-hungry data centers being built to accommodate the technology. All of these issues could influence voters’ choices in key House, Senate and gubernatorial races this fall.
Vance, 42, has always said his focus is on the vice president’s job and helping his party get through the midterm elections, and that any decision about succeeding Trump in 2028 won’t be made after that.
Asked Thursday whether Republicans’ poor showing on Nov. 3 would affect his thinking, Vance responded: “You make those decisions by gathering as much information as you can and trying to make informed decisions. Yeah, I mean, no matter what happens in the next 35 days, there’s going to be new information, new things that you need to make decisions about.”
Could the big Republican losses convince him that the climate might not be conducive to his bid for president? Vance was noncommittal.
“Now, I try not to think too much in what-ifs,” he said. “I’m just doing my best to encourage people to elect candidates who I think are good candidates. The American people make that decision, and when they do, yes, I’ll have some new information to consider.”
Vance is more eager to assess a potential rival: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz said in a recent interview with MS NOW that Vance is not locked into the 2028 nomination and expressed a desire to “definitely be part of the discussion.” He also painted the party’s future as a choice between “small government, free market Conservatives” or “big government, nanny state party.”
Vance said he was not bothered by Cruz’s efforts to create conflict.
“It’s clear to me that at this moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance added. “Right now, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans. That’s what I’m going to continue to do.”
Cruz, who is not running for re-election to the Senate this year, has been raising money and campaigning for midterm candidates — not just in Texas but also in states like Iowa and South Carolina. Both are traditionally scheduled early in the Republican presidential caucus and primary calendar.
Cruz is also expected to campaign this month for Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Michael Wortley.
“Senator Cruz has been committed to electing Republicans on the ballot this November, and he will continue to campaign vigorously in the coming weeks to help make that happen,” a spokesperson said in a statement to NBC News.
In the interview, Vance addressed several core issues surrounding the midterm elections. He acknowledged frustration with high gas prices and said it was a topic he and Donald discussed backstage at a rally in Florida on Thursday.
Vance also reiterated the message he has been delivering on Capitol Hill and across the country. Republicans can’t pretend things are perfect, he said, but they can highlight their successes while blaming past Democratic administrations for getting them into chaos and arguing that the next wave of Democrats will be worse.
“I think people are recognizing that the message is starting to sink in – that we’re solving a problem created by the Democrats who are running a lot of crazy people,” Vance said. “I do feel like the message is penetrating. Obviously, we’ll know in about 35 days whether it’s going to be successful.”
Asked whether the accusations against the Trump administration, which has been in power for more than a year and a half, are justified, Vance acknowledged that frustration may exist.
“Voters are impatient, right? They’re going to make a decision eventually,” he said. “We have to make the argument that we can. Honestly, I think we inherited a very difficult situation. … But I think our approach is to brag about wins and talk about great accomplishments.”
Vance is also working on two of the hottest issues of this campaign season: data centers and artificial intelligence.
When it comes to data centers, Vance takes a somewhat middle ground.
“I certainly think there are concerns on the ground,” he said. “I think in some cases the companies that are building the data centers have done a good job of making sure that the community shares in the benefits and making sure that prices don’t go up – electricity, electricity prices don’t go up. But in some communities, obviously, you’re not going to see that happen, you’re going to see more pushback.”
His stance is more nuanced than Trump’s and has a different tone. In an August post on Truth Social, the president compared data centers to “golden geese” and accused opponents of building them of “hoping to end up backward and poor.”
Vance is both enthusiastic and cautious when it comes to artificial intelligence, recently raising concerns about cybersecurity and its use in warfare. During the interview, the vice president noted recent concerns about the pace of technological advancement and fears that it will lead to the end of human existence, comparing it to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I actually feel a little bit like I did with COVID-19, where there seems to be severe panic. The risk is real, just like COVID-19, but the remedies are not necessarily appropriate or specific to the risk,” Vance said. “Specifically, when I see people who have actually developed models that are good at hacking other people’s software and say, ‘Oh my gosh, we released Frankenstein into the wild; the government should help us’ — well, one of the ways that the government has to help is by making sure that there are some consequences for the people who release Frankenstein into the wild.”
He later added: “My concern with AI right now is that our response is not to force the companies that make the products to take on more responsibility, but to create a regulatory regime that actually protects them from liability and doesn’t deal with the real risks in the process.”