Why broadcast TV still dominates political ad spending

While ad dollars are shifting to streaming and digital platforms, political ad wars are still being fought over the free airwaves.

Broadcast television companies are set to take the largest share of political advertising ahead of the midterm elections, according to ad intelligence firm AdImpact.

The 2025-26 election cycle is projected to be the most expensive on record, with total spending of $11.6 billion. This is higher than the $11.2 billion spent on advertising during the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms.

About $5.6 billion of advertising spending ahead of the midterms, or 48%, is expected to go to broadcast companies, AdImpact found.

“It’s still a local game,” StoneX Equity Research Analyst Daniel Kurnos said in an interview. “Yes, there is a national election, but you have to win the district. And if you have to win the district, you have to reach the voters in that district.”

Broadcast audiences — those who tune in to NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox or local affiliate stations — are generally more politically active, Kurnos said: “You’re filling the voting demo. You’re filling the voices that matter.”

That makes political advertising one of the last bastions of broadcast dominance.

While broadcasters are expected to take about half of political ad spending this cycle, they account for just 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in public ad spending forecast for this year in the United States, according to Magna data published by S&P Global in July.

Terry Nelson, founding partner of Plus Communications and national political director for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign, told CNBC that broadcast placement allows political strategists to reach large numbers of voters “efficiently from a cost standpoint.”

Although cord-cutting has reshaped the TV landscape as subscribers ditch cable, broadcast remains free and widely accessible.

Broadcast, which delivers local news, sports, classic game shows like “Wheel of Fortune” and national networks, captured more television usage hours than cable in July, according to Nielsen’s latest monthly streaming report, The Gauge. The category accounted for 19.5% of television usage, while cable took 18.7%. Streaming leads the use of television by far, at 49%.

Broadcasting is still very good at delivering high viewership during live sports games, Nelson said.

“If you think about the audience of the NFL, for example, you’re still going to have a large audience among a large segment of the population,” he said. “So no matter how you slice that demographic, whether it’s men, women, or older, younger people, or whatever happens, NFL games are still going to provide a large segment of all of those audiences.”

Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcast industry, reduced the power of broadcasting during the election cycle to “trust, reach and because it works.”

Seitter told CNBC in a statement that television’s perceived reliability is critical to political campaigns.

“Earning the trust of voters is the same as voting for your candidate or issue,” Seitter said.

He also said he believes broadcasting is better for promoting candidates and political issues than some digital channels.

“You might see political ads on social media, but you don’t trust the content of those ads because users don’t believe what they hear or see on social media,” Seitter said. “Conversely, viewers trust local broadcast TV news, so when they see a political ad, they are more likely to trust the content of the ad on a platform they know has long-standing rules, regulations and trust.”

Seitter said political campaigns continue to advertise on traditional TV because there is clear evidence that they have an impact on voting behavior.

“Nothing moves the needle in the polls like running ads on broadcast TV,” Seitter said.

According to a study conducted by TVB, 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans say that broadcast or cable television is the most important form of advertising media to influence how they vote.

Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at sell-side ad firm Magnite, told CNBC that the perceived impact is tied to the platform’s long history.

“There are various studies out there that show a correlation between the number of points you buy on TV in relation to the movement of poll numbers, because the medium has been around for almost 70 years,” he said.

But Brydges said he believes the power of broadcasting is also due to muscle memory.

“Many of the campaigns and many of the consultants who work on those campaigns have been used to buy TV,” Brydges said. “There’s an old adage that no political consultant gets fired for suggesting buying more TVs.”

Broadcasting companies have enjoyed a fortune from high advertising spend.

General trade broadcasters, incl Nexstar Media Group, Gray Media, Sinclair and EW Scrippseach reported high political ad revenue in the latest fiscal quarter and forecast continued growth through the fall as the midterms inch closer.

StoneX’s Kurnos told CNBC that the broadcasting company is relying on low revenue from political ads to help manage debt.

“They have all the infrastructure to [standard advertising] already,” said Kurnos. “And you don’t need to work creatively. You don’t need to work on selling. … Politics is just, therefore, pure margin dollars.”

Nexstar, which owns or operates at least 265 stations and numerous websites and mobile apps, reported the highest monthly revenue in the company’s history. Net income reached $1.99 billion, and advertising revenue reached $862 million, according to the August earnings report.

Overall revenue in the second fiscal quarter was driven by the merger with broadcast rival Tegna, which Nexstar formally acquired in March.

However, despite the reduction in incremental revenue from the merger, the company still reported fiscal second-quarter growth in legacy Nexstar that was primarily driven by $75 million in political advertising revenue, according to the company’s most recent earnings call.

Gray Media, although smaller operationally than Nexstar, may be a company to watch, according to Kurnos.

The company’s stations operate in some of the markets with the most competitive races and thus spend the most on advertising: Gray has exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races, according to Kurnos.

“Gray has always been the most efficient political generator in the broadcast group,” he said.

Sinclair and Scripps also reported political ad revenue as a bright spot in their earnings reports for the latest fiscal quarter.

EW Scripps said political ad revenue reached its highest second-quarter level, while Sinclair said political ad revenue rose 9% from the second quarter of 2022 during the last midterm season.

“No other medium delivers a political message as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television,” EW Scripps CEO Adam Symson said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call.

At the other end of the media spectrum, connected TV represents the fastest-growing category of political ad spending, according to AdImpact. The category includes devices connected to the internet like Apple TV or year.

It is predicted to gain 23%, or $2.7 billion, of ad spending this cycle, AdImpact found, and will likely continue to gain share.

Magnite’s Brydges said that connected TV, or CTV, and its complex and fast ad-supported free streaming channels – also called FAST – have kept some advertisers away from taking advantage of high viewership.

“If you look at some of the FAST streaming services — some of your Plutos, your Tubis — your campaign or consultant may not know what that is,” Brydges said. “So they might be like, ‘Well, if I don’t know what it is, it’s probably not worth the investment.'”

However, he said he believes political consultants are becoming more attuned to the benefits the platform provides.

SKDK’s Pia Carusone, who manages the company’s political advertising department, told CNBC in an interview that she sees value in the streaming’s special audience targeting feature.

“If you buy NBC in New York City, for example, you’re buying the entire market,” he says of traditional advertising strategies. “Increasingly, now with the streaming platform and CTV, they can provide more nuance in targeting. So we can sort the audience directly.”

But ultimately, Carusone said, political advertising strategies depend on maintaining a diverse portfolio.

“You can’t just do digital. You can’t just do linear,” he said. “Good buyers are now buying across the spectrum.”