With hurricane season less than two months away, the possibility of a ninth tropical storm in the Atlantic basin is brewing in the South Bay.
Since the Atlantic storm season began on June 1, there have been only eight named storms this year; child continues to bring a more active season to the Pacific. The season ends on November 30th.
what we know
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and as it brewed over the warm waters of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, much was still unknown.
Forecast models are beginning to agree that the northward movement of this tropical system will reach the Gulf Coast by the end of the week.
Regardless of its name or whether it develops into a tropical storm, we do know it will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast and other parts of the Southeast this weekend into early next week.
Some long-range forecast models also predict this moisture will eventually reach the Ohio Valley and Northeast by the middle of next week.
what we don’t know
The timing, storm strength, and severity of this tropical system’s impact on land remain unknown.
While some models have impacts starting Friday night, others show impacts starting later in the weekend.
There is also some uncertainty in the storm intensity forecast for this system, with some models keeping it as a tropical depression while others have it reaching tropical storm intensity. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Isaias, pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs.”
Beware of the storm named after “me”
Although the formation and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes can vary throughout the season, systems with the “I” designation tend to be the most retired names within the Atlantic basin.
The most common retirement “I” naming storms are Ian (2022), Ada (2021), Emma (2017) and Erin (2011).
After Ike retired in 2008, Isaias replaced the “I” designation on the Atlantic tropical cyclone list, which rotates every six years.
