As President Donald Trump campaigns for the nation’s highest office in 2024, he regularly blames Democrats for the nation’s economic worries.
During the campaign stop in the US, Trump often asked voters if they are better than four years ago. At that point, the message was clear: In an election focused on inflation and the cost of living, Trump won every swing state and the popular vote nationwide.
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Two years later, voters grappling with kitchen-table issues have taken away many of the parties in power in Washington and in states across the country.
Democrats rode a blue wave of historic proportions in Tuesday’s midterm elections to flip everything from the battleground congressional seat to the long-held Republican governorship. The Democratic Party will now have control of the House and Senate, ending the trifecta of Republicans in the federal government.
Nearly nine out of 10 voters in the CNBC Voter Poll said the cost of living was an important or major factor in voting for Congress. Pollsters ranked the economy as the most important issue facing the country in the midterm elections, ahead of topics like state democracy and immigration. Three out of every four survey participants rated the economy as “poor” or “not good,” compared to just 2% who rated it as “very good.”
And perhaps most importantly: Fewer than one in five voters say their family’s finances are better than they were two years ago.
Most of their discontent is centered on Trump himself, with about two out of every three voters saying his policies have worsened the state’s economic situation.
“It’s all about economics,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Most Americans are struggling with high inflation and have been for a long time, and they’re just angry.”
A ‘breaking point’
Tuesday’s election is being played against the backdrop of a politically unpopular war with Iran and increasing inflationary pressures that Americans face on a daily basis. A CNBC Voter Poll found that nearly three in four people said the war was an important or major factor in voting for Congress.
Trump told Fox News that voters may not be happy with rising gas prices, even though most agree with the need for military action against Iran. Vice President JD Vance said on social media that some voters who supported him and Trump in 2024 are likely to support Democrats in the midterms as a result of the war.
U.S. drivers paid about $4.15 for an average gallon of gas on Tuesday, the highest on any midterm or presidential election day since at least 2000, according to AAA. Gas prices have risen about 37% over the past year as the Middle East conflict has disrupted global crude trade.
“America is sending a very clear message,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel price tracking platform. “Going to the election with prices that are never higher on election day is something that garners a lot of frustration from consumers.”
Higher prices for gas and other energy products have cost the average American household nearly $1,230 since the start of the Iran war, according to analysis from Zandi. The financial pain felt by US consumers from the conflict has spilled over into other areas. Adding in the cost of debt and extended military service will cost a household more than $900, according to Zandi.
The consumer price index, a seller of goods and services tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accelerated again during the war with Iran. Rising consumer prices have outpaced wage gains in recent months, leaving consumers with less purchasing power.
Prices for diesel, the type of fuel used by truck and train drivers, soared to records that transportation executives said felt “like science fiction.” In its latest producer price index report, the BLS said rising diesel costs are driving up the prices of many goods.
A CNBC Poll of Voters found more than three out of every five people believe Trump’s policies have led to higher prices. Almost nine out of 10 said they were very or slightly worried about prices for various goods such as utilities, food and oil. The poll was a collaborative effort across several news organizations that conducted about 100,000 interviews conducted by phone, online and in person at polling locations with a margin of error of 0.6%.
Trump took over an economy emerging from the pandemic caught in “vibecession,” a term used to describe the disconnect between sour consumer confidence and positive economic fundamentals. With consumer prices currently in one of the longest streaks of higher-than-preferred inflation readings, the average American’s economic sentiment is worse today.
The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment in 2026 fell to the worst level in its seven-decade history. The Conference Board, meanwhile, said its measure of consumer confidence in September fell to a 14-year low.
Inflation pushes voters to a “breaking point,” said Francesco D’Acunto, a Georgetown University professor who studies behavioral economics. “If consumers are angry voters, they’re voting against the status quo — in this case, the Trump administration.”
An unpopular policy
Before the US started a war with Iran in late February, economists and monetary policymakers had been worried about what Trump’s policies could mean for the economy.
Trump laid out plans for broad and steep tariffs as a way to revive domestic manufacturing, but the policy has sent financial markets reeling and raised the prospect of a potential recession. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve say many consumer prices would have fallen if not for Trump’s tariffs, many of which were later struck down by the Supreme Court.
In a CNBC Voter Poll, 64% said Trump’s tariff policy is hurting the region’s economy. Only 14% said they helped.
The Trump White House has also overseen mass deportations in major cities that have paved the way for large-scale protests and the deaths of two US citizens by federal immigration agents. A University of Pennsylvania study found that cities experiencing a surge in immigration collectively saw less foot traffic and billions of dollars in lost consumer spending.
About three in five voters said they disapprove of the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement is handling their jobs and that the Trump administration has gone too far on the issue, according to a CNBC Poll. However, voters are more likely to say the Republican Party is better at handling immigration.
Of course, some policies in the Trump White House have been better received. The Internal Revenue Service said in October that the average tax refund grew by 11% after the passage of Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” The so-called Trump Account allows parents to use government and donor funds to build a nest egg for their children.
But on Tuesday, voters showed that affordability remains a top concern as the Iran war continues and inflation tightens pockets. What has changed compared to the 2024 presidential election is who is believed to be able to fix it.
In 2024, more voters said Trump was better prepared to handle the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris. This week, voters said Democrats are better equipped than Republicans to handle the economy.
But the party will have a lot of work. Seven out of 10 respondents to a CNBC Voter Poll said they feel the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy.
“We know very clearly what makes America tired,” said Zandi, who advises politicians from both parties. “There is another election coming up in two years. Hopefully, the policy makers will listen to all this.”