A new poll shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly overall in the race to be Florida’s next governor, but Hispanics favor the Democrat by 5 points.
A new N+ Univision/YouGov poll on Monday showed Donald’s overall approval rating at 50%, compared with Jolly’s 42%. Among Latinos, however, Jolly’s approval rating is 48% to Donald’s 43%. The poll also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating among key voting blocs is more negative than overall, with an approval rating of 38% and a disapproval rating of 54%.
Midterm elections are often seen as a test of the political environment facing the ruling party, and the president’s party has historically lost seats in midterm elections. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress.
As families across the U.S. continue to express concerns about affordability, Trump’s overall approval rating and rankings on specific policy issues such as the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war with Iran have declined.
Trump won his home state of Florida in the 2024 presidential election, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits. The win in the state was notable in Trump’s broader victory as he made inroads into the state’s predominantly Hispanic communities and counties such as Miami-Dade County, Hillsborough and Osceola.
newsweek CNN reached out to Jolly and Donald’s campaigns via email on Monday for comment.
what to know
Florida was once considered a battleground, but has shifted to the right over time and is now seen as a reliable option for Republicans. The influx of conservative retirees into the state and Trump’s incursion into Latinos have helped turn the state into a stronghold.
However, Democrats are hoping to make the state more competitive again in the November midterm elections, with gubernatorial candidate Jolly and U.S. Senate candidate Angie Nickerson leading the way.
New polls show that Cubans support Trump’s Donald 51% to 42%, Puerto Ricans support Jolly 51% to 35%, and South Americans support Jolly 47% to 44%. Polls show that 9% of Latinos voting for president in 2024 support Joly.
Fifty-five percent of Latinos also say immigration enforcement goes too far. That number includes 32% who think the border needs to be secure but say enforcement is too strong, and 23% who think the situation at the border is exaggerated and enforcement is too strong, according to the poll.
The survey shows that 41% of Latinos are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone close to them may be affected by immigration enforcement. Polls show that 29% of Latino Trump voters also say immigration enforcement goes too far.
Affordability is a key issue for Sunshine State voters, with 59% of Latinos saying jobs and cost of living are the state’s top issues, 57% citing housing costs and affordability, and 33% citing immigration and immigration enforcement.
Clarissa Martinez, Vice President of Unidos US, a nonprofit nonpartisan affiliate organization newsweek “This poll is consistent with the sentiment among Hispanic voters in Florida and across the country: widespread dissatisfaction with the economy. Hispanics point to the top two issues influencing Hispanic voters’ views of the president as cost of living and immigration enforcement as two powerful factors driving these voters away from the Republican Party,” he said via email on Monday.
The poll surveyed 825 Florida voters from October 2 to 15 and had a margin of error of 4%.
What other polls show
A poll from the Stetson University Polling Research Center found that among likely voters, Donald’s support increased by 52%, while Jolly’s support increased by 41%. The survey showed that about 5% were undecided and 3% would choose another candidate. The poll, which surveyed 826 Florida adults from Oct. 1 to Oct. 9, had a margin of error of 4.2 percent.
A Mason-Dixon poll conducted by NBC 6 and Telemundo showed Donald’s overall approval rating up 48 percent and Jolly’s up 41 percent. One percent said otherwise and 10 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 625 registered voters in the state from September 28 to October 1, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4%.
Polls show 48% of Hispanics support Donald and 43% support Jolly.
newsweek’s Reporters and editors used our artificial intelligence assistant Martyn to produce this story. Learn more about Martin here. Please contact the Newsweek editor regarding this story: Edward T. Cummins