You pay the price for a war you will never see. It often shows up at gas stations, a few cents at a time, long before it appears in the headlines.
That’s not pennies this fall. The national average price for regular natural gas on Oct. 10 was $4.37, according to AAA. A year ago, the same gallon cost about $3.12.
AAA noted in an Oct. 8 update that this is the first time the national average has remained above $4 in October.
I bridge this gap with a simple home budget. For a 15-gallon tank, the cost per fill-up is about $18.77 higher than last October. Filling up with gas once a week works out to nearly $976 a year, not including buying a bag of groceries.
According to Trading Economics, the global oil benchmark Brent crude oil price was close to $104.43 per barrel on October 9, up approximately 66% from the same period last year.
So when Washington declares a major victory over Iran’s oil operations, you have the right to ask a blunt question. Did any of it reach your wallet?
That’s the backdrop to Finance Minister Scott Bessant’s latest action on Tehran’s oil trade. On Thursday, October 8, the Treasury Department sanctioned 17 vessels that it called the remnants of Iran’s “shadow fleet,” the aging tankers used by the Iranian regime to ship oil to foreign buyers.
“Treasury is starving Tehran’s oppressive regime of funds to wage war in the region, and we will continue to expose those who help the regime sell oil,” Bessant said in a Treasury statement.
Then there are the warnings for middlemen. He added: “Any facilitator of Iran’s sanctions evasion is not immune from the full force of Treasury authorities.”
George Passantulis/Getty Images
Treasury targets last batch of shadow fleet
The operation was part of Operation Economic Pariah, a campaign Bessent launched on August 24 called Economic D-Day. The goal is to “sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran is left alone,” Bessant told a news conference, according to the Treasury Department.
The Treasury Department said the new targets were registered in more than a dozen jurisdictions and operated through a network of front companies. According to Iran International reports, if relevant names are included, Iran’s actions that day involved 6 individuals, 27 entities and 22 ships.
Treasury officials said the move was “the most significant blow yet” to Iran’s remaining illegal shipping network, Alhurra reported.
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As I walked through the Treasury’s ship list line by line, I was struck by how few crude oil tankers there were among those ships. By my count, only two of the 17 ships – the Tina 5 and the Shenzhen – were described as crude oil carriers.
Seven are liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers. The rest carry naphtha, fuel oil, methanol and even asphalt.
This is important. Iran sells much more than crude oil. It also exports cooking gas, plastic raw materials and industrial chemicals to keep its petrochemical industry afloat.
Why natural gas prices are still feeling the effects of overseas wars
This is the uncomfortable part. Most of Iran’s oil left the market months ago, so squeezing the last of it doesn’t free up much supply for you.
More Bessant and Iranian Oil:
- Bessent in talks with Iran’s largest oil customer
- Bessant makes shocking Hormuz move that could reset oil prices
- Scott Bessent cuts into Iran, what’s next for oil
According to Vortexa data released by Greek Shipping News, the United States began imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, and Iranian exports have effectively stopped since mid-July.
The real pressure on fuel costs comes from the Strait of Hormuz. According to “Trading Economics”, in the week ended October 4, 11 oil tankers were attacked while crossing the strait, causing global freight rates to hit a record high.
According to my analysis, this is a gap that most sanctions coverage ignores. The Treasury Department is going after bank accounts in Tehran, and the price you pay is set on the route.
Bessant has previously said that the oil market is better supplied than the panic suggests, and I delved deeper into this when he revealed why the Iranian oil market has not collapsed.
Tehran’s crude exports have shrunk to a trickle
The numbers show how much is left to squeeze.
- Early 2026: Before the blockade, Iran was shipping about 2 million barrels of oil per day, according to Vortexa.
- August 2026: Vortexa data showed loadings fell to about 210,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since 2020.
- September 2026: According to the United Organization Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), there is no crude oil and only about 50,789 barrels of crude oil per day are crossing the blockade, transported by three tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas and methanol.
- October 2026: According to Alhurra, a Treasury official said there were no more than about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remaining on tankers outside the blockade.
I compared that last number to the roughly 100 million barrels the world burns every day, the same benchmark used by officials. 20 million barrels can meet the world’s oil demand in less than 5 hours.
That’s why the Treasury can call this the biggest hit yet and traders won’t back down. According to Trading Economics, on October 9, the day after the announcement, Brent crude oil prices rose only 0.14%.
Not everyone thinks the fleet is gone forever. Tom Warwick, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Alhurra that Tehran may be able to replace sanctioned ships, although the Treasury Department has been tracking them.
What Bessent’s crackdown means for your wallet
So what do you do with all this? Start by separating two similar-sounding stories.
The Treasury appears to be winning the battle for Tehran’s cash. The price of your pump depends entirely on other factors, namely whether the ship can safely transit Hormuz.
There was a hint of movement. According to “Trading Economics”, President Trump said that Washington is having “productive discussions” with Iran and will not attack the country again before the November 3 midterm elections, while Iran’s foreign minister said that Tehran is reviewing the United States’ response to its proposal to reopen the strait within seven days.
I won’t base my budget around cheaper gas until there is a deal to actually reopen the Channel. Prices for fall and holiday drives are $4+ today and consider any drop as a bonus.
The same logic applies if you hold energy funds. These sanctions will not increase market output, but the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could quickly deplete a large portion of the war premium.
Bessant’s warnings about Iranian enablers are true and will be felt by shipowners on the Treasury Department’s list. You will only breathe a sigh of relief if the tanker can get through Hormuz without being shot at.
Focus on the strait, not the sanctions list.
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