and GDP Monthly for August, manufacturing production. First, the NBER BCDC indicators:
Figure 1: NFP employment (thick blue), civilian employment with smoothed population control (thick orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (thick light green), Manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bar), all log normalized for 25M012. Sources: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q2 3rd release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/2/2026), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Civil employment adjusted to the NFP concept smoothing population control, using experimental control for 2025 (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), private ADP nonfarm payroll employment (light green), real retail sales, deflated CPI (black), cargo service index (brown), and coincidence index in Ch.2017$ (normal pink), (normal log) 2025M01=0. Sources: BLS, ADP via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2026Q2 3rd release, and the author’s calculations.
Industrial production beat the consensus, while manufacturers met. Nominal retail sales also beat expectations, but CPI deflated sales were near flat. Retail sales ex gas stations fell in real terms (that is, deflated by the core) actually fell (see Figure 3 below).
Figure 3: Retail sales minus CPI (blue), state retail sales of gasoline minus core CPI (red), both in log, 2026M02=0. Sources: Census, BLS, via FRED, and author’s calculations.