In a 2025 survey, officials in President Joe Biden’s administration viewed increased immigration as a “disruption factor” best ignored so the administration could focus political resources on more important economic issues after Biden won the 2020 election, according to The New York Times.
Scott Shuchart, a Biden appointee who will join Immigration and Customs Enforcement in 2022, told the newspaper that the White House “wants the problem to go away so they can focus on the things they care about.”
But two years after Donald Trump used voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s management of the U.S. southern border to win the 2024 election and launch an immigration crackdown, the issue suddenly became a secondary one.
At a time when the cost of living in the United States is rising, the war in Iran is destabilizing and the global business system is disrupted, the now-calm border provides relief to Democrats’ most vexing issue just before the midterm elections.
From responsibility to advantage
For the past three decades, Democrats and their candidates have worked hard to craft and pass new immigration policies and deliver relevant political messages.
Bipartisan attempts at comprehensive immigration reform failed on Capitol Hill in 2006, 2007 and 2013. Since then, most Americans have placed more trust in Republicans to solve the problem. When the importance of immigration policy rises due to the border crisis and related high-profile events, that gives Republicans an advantage, even if that advantage has narrowed recently.
In a February 2024 poll, 28% of U.S. respondents told Gallup that immigration was the country’s most important issue, the largest share since tracking began in 1981. By May 2026, the figure was 8%, a staggering decline in such a short period of time.
In another poll conducted by The Economist/YouGov, the share of registered U.S. voters who view immigration as the country’s most important issue fell from 14% in October 2024 to 5% in September 2026.
Republican Senate race pollster Erik Iverson recently told Axios that the reduction in the number of border crossings reduces the urgency of immigration, depriving Republicans of an issue that previously energized voters and gave conservatives an advantage.
“You become a victim of your own success,” he said.
But this success is questionable. President Trump’s approval rating on immigration is very low.
In RealClear’s September-October 2026 average of polls, he has a net approval rating of negative 10.8%. In a recent Fox News poll, a majority of Americans believe the Trump administration has gone “too far” in enforcing immigration laws, including 60% of independents.
While Republicans insist that mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and a halt to new arrivals will raise wages and make housing more accessible, Americans are experiencing high inflation, slow gross domestic product growth and sluggish consumer sentiment.
Michael M. San Diego/Getty Images
In an ominous sign for the White House, Trump’s net approval rating on immigration is negative at 10.8%, which is actually one of his best approval ratings. On inflation, the economy, and foreign policy, his net approval ratings were negative 42.8%, negative 31.7%, and negative 27.8%, respectively.
These dynamics bode well for Democrats’ midterm election prospects.
Republicans now care less about immigration—which has been their greatest source of political energy and the left’s greatest political liability—because voters in both parties are focused on other issues.
Despite the White House’s aggressive and frequently violent pursuit of undocumented immigrants, proposals to end birthright citizenship, and moves closer to closing U.S. borders, even Democrats are no more likely than before to view immigration as the nation’s top issue.
According to the Economist/YouGov poll cited earlier, 1% of Democrats see immigration as their top issue in September 2026. In October 2024, 3% said the same.
Notably, independents now trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration, 41% to 27%, despite Democrats not supporting a single new immigration policy idea, according to a September 2026 Marist survey.
Trial and Error by the Democratic Party
After a decade of trying different ways to counter the nativism and popular malaise that Trump exploited, the Democratic advantage suddenly emerged.
Before and shortly after Trump’s 2016 election victory, Democratic leaders sought to improve the image of foreigners in the United States, emphasizing that immigrants on average started more businesses, filed for more patents and committed fewer crimes than native-born U.S. citizens.
Ronald Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images
During this period, Democrats frequently cited the severe vulnerability of immigrants and their willingness and ability to fill critical low-skill and high-skill labor gaps. But this kind of praise and pity has caused resentment among many Americans, who do not want the admissions system to promote foreigners to higher status.
As Trump’s first administration draws to a close, Democrats
Begin to cite the enormous macroeconomic and fiscal benefits of immigrants settling long-term in the United States
Economists attribute much of the U.S. population growth between 1990 and 2015 to immigration. Economists have shown that continued immigration can moderate inflation and improve the solvency of Social Security and Medicare funds. Immigrants also provide workers for industries such as construction, agriculture, food production and health care.
However, the benefits of these relationships to the general electorate tend to be diffuse and realized over the medium to long term. This makes them difficult to recognize.
The Biden administration sought to avoid immigration altogether after the global pandemic halted most movement in 2020. Democrats have now adopted this strategy, and the drive to get out of office still allows for it.
There is no compulsion to take no action
If Democrats win majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives in 2026, immigration is unlikely to be solved. As a matter of constitutional oversight, Democrats plan to launch an investigation into the Trump administration’s abusive immigration enforcement tactics, questionable case rulings and alleged corruption.
In such an environment, passing meaningful immigration legislation is nearly impossible.
The Biden-era approach is a key liability in the 2024 election. The Obama administration’s series of administrative actions on immigration triggered a tennis match of such orders between successive administrations.
Democrats will soon feel some pressure to develop a bipartisan approach to immigration governance that ensures order at the U.S. border and develops an immigration selection and integration strategy that takes into account the national interest.
Failing that, the dysfunctional system—and its enormous political risks—will return.
Justin Gest, Professor of Policy and Government, George Mason University; Institute of Humanities
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.