OMAHA, Neb. — Marine Corps veteran Gunner Arellano is a supporter of Donald Trump — he has voted for the president three times — but he says he will not vote for Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in November.
Arellano, a 35-year-old tobacconist, said in an interview late last month at the SG Roi Cigar Shop in downtown Omaha that Dan Osborne, an independent backed by the state Democratic Party, “cares more about people” than Ricketts.
While Arellano is familiar with Ricketts, a two-term governor who tops the list of richest senators, he said the senator’s attendance was not enough.
“All these politicians, they want to change their stance come election time, right?” he said. “You know, come over on the Wednesday in the middle of your semester.”
Arellano said he will vote for Osborne, and voters like him are why Democrats in Nebraska and nationwide hope they can capture the Senate in the heavily Republican state. They are more optimistic about flipping the state’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, where Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris wins in 2024 and Republican Rep. Don Bacon is retiring.
That year, Osborne surprised many political observers by running a closely contested race against Nebraska Republican Sen. Deb Fisher, who ultimately won by just over 6 points to Trump’s 20-point margin. That latter advantage, coupled with Ricketts’s record of winning in statewide races at the gubernatorial and Senate levels, is one reason Republicans are confident they can hold on to the seat.
Omaha was the final leg of an eight-stop, five-state tour NBC News reporters took along Interstate 80 in late August, passing through battleground congressional districts and states with hotly contested Senate races. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the House next year, and Nebraska is on the fringe of a small list of states likely to participate in November.
While independent polling in the state isn’t showing much progress, Republicans are facing a national upheaval as Trump’s support plummets. Against a backdrop of an ongoing war with Iran, rising gas and diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs wreaking havoc on rural America, Democrats see a resurgence of prairie populism that they believe will boost their candidates in the heartland.
That’s why Democrats say they’re not as worried about the influx of Republican ad spending on the campaign, whether from Ricketts or outside groups, as they might be. Republicans have spent $7 million on broadcasts since Sept. 1 and booked another $8 million ahead of Election Day, according to AdImpact data analyzed by NBC News. Osborne and groups supporting him have spent $3.5 million and retained another $1.5 million.
The difference in money suggests Republicans are worried about holding on to a seat they’ve held since 1997, or at least committed to making sure they don’t take victory for granted.
“I think you’ll see that as Pete starts to define him [Osborn]David McIntosh, president of the Growth Club, which supports Ricketts, said in an interview in early September:
Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Klebb said in a phone interview that she doesn’t think the money will be decisive because Republicans and Ricketts have fallen out of favor.
“Basically, voters are saying, ‘We’re not going to buy what you’re selling,'” she said. “So it doesn’t matter.”
Most Republicans will stick with Ricketts, but some see Osborne as the candidate they will (or could) vote for.
“The workers, the union members, seemed to be grounded in the Nebraska way, an outsider,” said Chris Holder, 45, of Elkhorn, who works as a business analyst for Union Pacific Railroad. “I haven’t really reviewed Osborne, but I’m considering him.”
For Democrats here, that’s an easy sell.
Sally Guest, 48, a registered nurse whose husband, Larry, no longer works after an accident, said both of them, both Democrats, were eager to vote for Osborne.
“Pete Ricketts was a millionaire, but he didn’t serve the state of Nebraska well,” Sally said. “So I hope we don’t see Pete Ricketts again.”
Sally said guests are well aware of health insurance costs because of her job and his disability. Ricketts voted for Trump-backed legislation that would cut the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid. The guests had insurance for him, but she didn’t – she paid for his medical care out of pocket – because of the price.
“God forbid I would have a medical emergency or end up in the emergency room due to an accident,” she said. “I have to—I don’t know—I’d better die.”
But Omaha business development manager Todd Goyne said he plans to vote for Ricketts. Goyne, 57, a former Democrat, said the party’s left-wing movement — nationwide, not just in Nebraska — made him wary of voting to give the party more power.
“There’s a complete shift as to which party represents the working class and taxpayers,” he said. “I think of the Democratic Party now as a completely different party than when I switched parties. Even more so. What you see happening with socialists and communists – what’s happening in all these elections across the country, it worries me very much.”
At the House level, all Republicans who spoke to NBC News said they plan to vote for Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who is trying to recreate the electorate that voted for Bacon three times. National Republicans say it’s a tough race — one of two the Cook Political Report considers Republicans to have right now — but they believe Harding is hitting his goals.
“Brinker Harding is a business leader and public servant who has delivered strong results in Nebraska, and he is building a coalition of Republicans, Democrats and independents who believe his common sense will prevail over his crazy vision,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Zach Bannon said. He added that Harding is “positioned to win this November.”
His opponent, Democrat Dennis Powell, won a crowded primary earlier this year. Guests said they didn’t know much about her, but that they would, as Larry put it, “vote blue” in districts that Democrats call “blue dots” because that party sometimes votes in presidential elections while the rest of the state and most neighboring states typically vote Republican red.
While Harding painted Powell as too extreme for the region, she tied him to Trump whenever possible. So are Democrats across the country.
“Nebraska voters want someone who is willing to go to Congress and fight for them, not a rubber stamp from another party,” said Madison Andrews, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, adding that Harding “knelt to Donald Trump.”