Control of the Senate hangs in the balance Tuesday after a midterm election cycle marked by betrayals, alleged ballot shenanigans and President Donald Trump’s ongoing obsession with a Republican candidate.
The race is expected to be close in several traditional battlegrounds — including Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina — as well as in red states like Ohio and Iowa that have become more reliably popular since the rise of Trump’s politics.
Races that are closer than expected are also brewing in redder states like Alaska, Kansas and Texas. Underscoring the high stakes: More than $3.4 billion has been spent on television and digital ads in Senate races across the country, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the House, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to regain control.
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The consequences for Trump are significant. His Republican Party has controlled both chambers of Congress for the past two years, allowing him to pursue his agenda largely without restraint. But if Republicans lose the Senate, he will need cooperation from Democrats to advance legislation and appointments. Democrats will have greater power to investigate the government.
Alaska emerged late as a high-profile race. Democrat Mary Pertola has come under scrutiny after The New York Times reported that her campaign and other Democrats recruited a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan J. Sullivan to run. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting and has four Senate candidates on the ballot, the “ballot stacking” strategy is seen as a way to sow confusion among voters.
Pertola and her campaign have repeatedly denied accusations that they recruited the little-known Sullivan.
Voting in Alaska ends at 1 a.m. Eastern time.
Voting in Ohio will end at 7:30 pm ET, while the last vote in Michigan will end at 9 pm ET, with the Senate battle earlier.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a tough challenge from Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who will serve the remaining two years of J.D. Vance’s term. Husted was appointed to temporarily fill the seat after Vance was elected vice president last year.
Polls show the race in Ohio is too close, and the president has held three rallies in the state in recent weeks and one in the Cincinnati media market in neighboring Kentucky in an effort to support Husted. Trump used the rallies not only to promote Husted’s work as a senator but also to praise his physique. Trump often gave the impression that he was casting for a movie, repeatedly praising Husted’s “butt” in Ohio and elsewhere.
“If Husted wins, it’s because Trump really dragged his ass across the finish line,” a senior Republican official told NBC News last week.
Then came the Michigan State game, which ended in explosive fashion. Republican candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers on Sunday secured a surprise last-minute endorsement from Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination in August when she challenged him.
Stevens had only vowed publicly and privately Saturday not to renege on his promise to vote for Abdul-Saeed. Democrats have long clashed over his criticism of Israel, but Stevens’ criticism has intensified in recent days, prompting the El-Sayed campaign to signal she was no longer welcome at his events. Stevens cited that in her decision to defect to Rogers, sparking outrage and accusations of betrayal from fellow House Democrats.
Other key races to watch Tuesday include Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m., pitting Republican Sen. Susan Collins against Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson.
At 9 p.m. ET, the last polls will close in Texas, a state that has not had a Democratic senator in 33 years. The race became tighter after Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn lost a primary runoff to state Attorney General Ken Paxton after Trump threw his support behind him.
Democrats are excited about their candidate, state Rep. James Talarico, who maintains a solid lead in polls, albeit within the margin of error. Meanwhile, Trump ally and tech billionaire Elon Musk has spent at least $150 million to support Paxton.