Tel Aviv — After three years of war on multiple fronts, Israelis are voting in a hotly contested election that will shape their next government. Polls show this is a extremely tense gameAs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struggles to hold on to his job, there is no guarantee that he or his political opponents will get a clear and quick outcome.
Polls vary widely on expected results. Right-leaning pollsters give an advantage to the right-wing and religious bloc led by Netanyahu, while left-leaning pollsters give an advantage to the so-called change bloc that opposes the current president.
Most polls show neither side is likely to win a decisive majority in the 120-seat Knesset, which would allow them to unilaterally form a new government. The tight margin means the vote is likely to be deadlocked, which could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government or even new elections.
“An indecisive outcome looks most likely,” said Yohanan Plessner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.
This is the first election since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which the authorities have acknowledged Israel’s most catastrophic security failure Since the founding of the country in 1948, Israel is about to usher in a general election. Israel is still engaged in multi-front wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and has engaged in two rounds of direct conflict with Iran, with Netanyahu advocating for a third round.
Against this backdrop, there are a few key issues that could determine the outcome of the election, even if it takes days or weeks to determine. But first, let’s take a look at the two main factions fighting for the vote.
Netanyahu camp
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and leader of his Likud party, is seeking to form another coalition similar to the current government, which relies on partnerships with ultra-nationalist and Jewish religious parties.
He made two main claims to voters: First, only he could form a government without the support of Israeli Arab parties, which he believed would be a danger to the country if these parties gained enough seats to influence Israel’s involvement in its numerous conflicts.
Netanyahu’s second argument to voters is that Israel’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon and especially Iran continue and that he needs more time to finish the work his government has started.
President Trump proposes an all-out plan Netanyahu’s support last week. He reiterated his government’s firm support for the war against Iran the two men launched nearly eight months ago and warned that Netanyahu may not be willing to continue if he does not remain in power.
“If Israel elects the wrong leader, and it’s anyone other than Bibi, the United States is going to have to do the job itself, and I’m not inclined to do that,” Mr. Trump said.
Since the endorsement, Netanyahu has argued that only he can work with Trump to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, which many Israelis view as an existential threat.
Netanyahu’s campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, is: “It’s either the right or Palestine, or it’s the right or the bomb.”
Over the weekend, Netanyahu posted an artificial intelligence-generated photo of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media with a text reiterating his insistence that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel.
Netanyahu’s supporters see him as a top global leader.
“Bibi can take on the world,” restaurant owner Benny Abraham, using Netanyahu’s nickname, told CBS News. “Bibi was charismatic. He had a booming voice. The world loved him.”
“He is the king of Israel,” Abraham added.
(anyone but Netanyahu) “The Change Group”
Running against Netanyahu is a diverse group of Arab, right-wing, left-wing and centrist parties who have one clear thing in common: They all want Netanyahu to step down.
The frontrunner to lead the “change bloc” if the parties together win enough seats to form a coalition government is former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party.
Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews while serving in Gaza. He was a member of Israel’s war cabinet, working alongside Netanyahu for much of the first year of the Gaza war. About half of the party’s candidates in Tuesday’s election are women, a stark contrast to Netanyahu’s male-dominated coalition.
Eric Marmo/Photo Alliance/Getty Images 
Eisenkot positions himself as a humble veteran who wants to reunite Israel after years of division, a division he blames on Netanyahu.
Eisenkot responded to Netanyahu’s comments on Monday about the nuclear threat posed by Iran, accusing him of “relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats – including images of a nuclear bomb in the center of Tel Aviv.”
“This time, it didn’t work for him,” he said.
Eisenkot’s key campaign promises include launching a state investigation into intelligence and security failures that prevented Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack, something Netanyahu has so far blocked.
Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old Tel Aviv engineer, told CBS News that he sees Eisenkot as the only real replacement for Netanyahu.
“There is neither left nor right in Eisenkot. He has integrity, he is honest. He is the kind of leader who will look after us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family,” Aharoni said.
The Arab vote and the ultra-Orthodox draft
Analysts believe several factors could lead to victory for both sides.
One thing about Israel that polls don’t predict well is voter turnout. Past elections have shown that the greatest difference in enthusiasm for coming out on Election Day is between voters who support Netanyahu’s Likud party and Arab Israeli voters, so turnout surprises can significantly change the outcome in favor of either party.
Arab Israelis, also known as Palestinian citizens of Israel, make up approximately 20% of the Israeli population.
“The higher the turnout in Arab countries, the less likely it is that Mr. Netanyahu will be able to form a new government within the current coalition,” said Plessner of the Israel Democracy Institute.
Jihad Abomochi, a cafe owner in the predominantly Arab city of Baqa al-Gharbia, told CBS News that more Arab voters will go to the polls this year because of their strong desire to prevent Netanyahu from forming a new government with far-right allies who have made life difficult for them over the past four years.
“The last four years have been a real disaster, both socially and war-wise,” he said, adding that many Arab Israelis believe they have “no hope, no future” under Netanyahu.
There are also two new parties entering the election, with polls showing support for each hovering near the threshold needed to gain seats in parliament. Whichever party ultimately crosses this threshold could tip the balance in either direction toward a new coalition government.
Both sides are committed to challenging Netanyahu’s alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties, demanding Ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens are officially included Compulsory military service in Israel.
Amir Levy/Getty Images 
This is a key issue that directly affects Netanyahu’s traditional support base and coalition partners.
Not all election results are clean
If neither bloc can win a clear majority in the Knesset, the new Israeli government has several options.
One option is that parties or individual lawmakers could renege on election promises and defect, for which there is much precedent in Israeli politics. It could take weeks of negotiations before the coalition can agree.
Another possibility is that the Change Group could seek to form a minority government if it wins a large number of votes but falls short of a majority. To do this, the parties simply need to collectively win more seats than each other, if not more than 50% of the 120 available seats. Arab parties can give the Change Bloc a majority by voting for a minority government, or simply abstaining without voting against its formation.
If a deadlock occurs and neither side is able to form a coalition government, the country will have to hold new elections. There are many precedents for this situation as well.
Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections due to electoral deadlock.
Plessner told CBS News that “we will have another election” if all politicians running effectively keep their campaign promises and refuse to switch sides in the face of gridlock.
“I’m sure most politicians are not interested in this,” he added.