Fewer people are flying, but the airlines are not worried

Fewer people are flying this year, but with airfares skyrocketing and climbing, airline executives say that’s not a good thing.

The number of people screened at US checkpoints is on track for its first annual decline since 2020. Major US carriers say taking on higher fares is more important than filling planes or the number of passengers flying.

“We are actively prioritizing yield versus load factor and we are very happy to see that. It fits with the premium investment we are making,” American Airlines Chief Commercial Officer Nat Pieper said on the company’s earnings call on Friday.

American’s load factor, the full measure of aircraft flying, fell to 83.4% in the third quarter from 86% in the same quarter in 2025.

The price of plane tickets has skyrocketed as airlines grapple with the surge in the price of jet fuel, the largest expense after labor, and pass the rest of the cost to customers.

Rates in September rose more than 22% from the previous year, according to the latest inflation reading. Fare tracker Hopper says it expects this holiday season to come with the most expensive ticket prices of the year.

Average Southwest Airlines fares in the third quarter, for example, were $231.69, up $50 from the previous year. That doesn’t include Southwest’s new fees, like extra fees for checked bags or seats closer to the front of the plane.

However, the airline’s revenue passenger numbers fell by 3.2% from a year ago, to around 33.5 million people.

However, tickets and passenger numbers exceeded Southwest’s expectations.

“Passenger fares were about $3 more than our forecast and more importantly passenger volume also exceeded our expectations,” Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said on Thursday’s earnings call.

From April — when airlines began warning seriously about profits being hit by the jet fuel surge — through Thursday, about 9.3 million fewer people were screened at airport checkpoints compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Transportation Security Administration. While it is down less than 2% from last year, it follows years of growth.

With jet fuel prices more than double last year’s level – as seen in US Gulf Coast spot prices up to $4.63 per gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration – airlines have focused on recouping fuel surges as much as possible.

Despite some drops, airline executives said during earnings call that overall travel demand was strong, particularly for lucrative premium cabins like business class.

And not every carrier is experiencing a decline. United Airlines flew 2.4% more passengers in the third quarter than last year, and said unit revenue rose 16%, the biggest increase since the pandemic.

“I was very surprised by the industry’s ability this year to raise yields and pass a lot of fuel price increases,” CEO Scott Kirby said on the company’s earnings call Wednesday. “So it’s possible that airlines will continue to focus on yield at the expense of the load factor and may only double their margins next year.”

Most airlines expect that fuel costs will continue to be low, but executives say they are confident in the strength of their pricing.

United, for example, said it expects to pay an average of $4.80 per gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from an average price of $3.90 per gallon in the third.

United States, Delta Air Lines and Southwest all cut their profit forecasts for 2026 this month when they reported earnings. American is the only one of the four that expects to post a loss this year.

America and others have also scaled back growth plans or warned the industry could dial back targets to increase capacity, which could raise rates. Reduced capacity can make fewer seats available to book, increasing prices even more if they are in demand.

The carrier says demand is strong for premium seats, which offer hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars more than coach tickets.

Smaller airlines will report results in the coming weeks, including Frontier Airlines and Allegiant Airhas traditionally focused on other price-sensitive customers, which can show that travelers are pulling back at all.

One factor that may also affect air travel is the demise of Spirit Airlines, which went out of business in early May.

“Some customers may stop flying,” Bank of America said in a research note Thursday.