More than $116/bbl.
One can decompose futures price increases into pure expected price changes, and risk premiums. Robin Brooks “What is Brent worth at $117?
A big risk premium has been valued in anticipation of a return to the “hot” war, arguing that it is largely due to the increased risk premium – perhaps too large – associated with the resumption of the much signaled war “hot” post-midterms.
Brooks bases his argument on previous experience of supply cuts and small changes in the distant future, and the logic is understandable. However, there are some (big) surprises in all this experience (including the extreme incompetence in war planning and strategic (presidential) decision-making), so it is understandable that the market can give greater weight to greater disturbances than before.