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The first hurricane of the fall is expected to hit the Gulf Coast overnight, marking the latest start to hurricane season in living memory. As of early Friday afternoon, Hurricane Isaias had upgraded to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph. It will hit the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi, posing a threat to the lives and property of millions of Americans. Forecasters expected 8 to 12 inches of rainfall in areas near the storm’s landfall.
The impending arrival of Isaias marks the end of an unusual period of good fortune for hurricanes that hit the United States. Last year, no hurricanes reached the continental United States at all. This year, Isaias broke a more than 100-year-old record: October 9 was the latest date since 1905 for the season’s first Atlantic hurricane to form. August and September are historically the busiest times of hurricane season.
But not lately. It’s a strange phenomenon that’s been happening lately, and it’s more accidental than usual. That’s because the Trump administration has cut weather forecasts and emergency relief funding over the past two years, leaving us less prepared for disasters.
Now it seems our luck is running out – more severe weather is coming.
Hurricane season may be quieter than usual, but El Niño is coming
While rising Earth temperatures raise concerns about more extreme weather events, El Niño can disperse hurricanes. This notorious shift in global wind patterns, which occurs every two to seven years, moves warm water around the oceans, disrupting traditional weather patterns and causing heavy rainfall and sometimes catastrophic floods and droughts. However, if there’s any upside, it’s that this temporary change in ocean conditions could prevent hurricanes from forming as frequently.
On the downside, El Niño is still happening. Forecasters expect this year’s edition to be historically bad – with words like “super” or “godzilla” used to describe it. The worst severe weather is expected to arrive in December: unusually rainy and stormy weather is expected in the southern half of the continental United States, while extreme drought is possible in the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest.
It will also be an important test of our declining ability to predict and respond to disasters. Trump’s “Big Beauty Act” cut funding for NOAA’s weather forecasting and public warning programs by $200 million, and 17% of FEMA’s staff left the agency in 2025 amid the administration’s purge of DOGE.
Currently, if you are in the danger zone for Isaias, please be aware of local and national weather warnings this weekend. If not, consider yourself lucky – but there are dark clouds on the horizon.
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