When I was a kid, I could spend hours playing Super Mario.
I still remember thinking this game was holding Mario back. I want him to be able to go straight through each stage, smashing anything in his way, rather than jumping over every pipe and pit. Today, I’d describe it as Mario with a Wreck-It Ralph fist.
I want to make that game. I’ve never done this because making one requires coding and art skills, plus time that a kid with a controller doesn’t have.
A lot of players grew up with this idea. Roblox Corporation (RBLX) has built its business on people who want to make their own games.
According to a report shared by Morgan Stanley with TheStreet, players spent approximately $6.8 billion on its platform last year in terms of bookings.
The hardest part of making a game may be disappearing now. A Morgan Stanley analyst typed a few sentences into Build, Roblox’s new artificial intelligence tool. The notes show that about 14 minutes in, they had a playable pirate obstacle course.
A country-western bash lasts about 17 minutes before another cue transports it to outer space. Analysts note that neither requires technical skills. This is the shortcut I was looking for as a kid.
Roblox is looking at Build as a way to get more people involved in making games. Chief Creator Ecosystem Officer Vlad Loktev said in a press release that the new tools will benefit creators “regardless of their experience level.”
However, analysts discovered a problem. The notes indicate that the build is only free within the usage limit. The app then offered to sell them more products in Robux, the platform’s virtual currency.
“This friction creates opportunities for competitors,” analysts Matthew Cost and Brian Nowak wrote in a report titled “Building: 3 Thoughts on the Future of Artificial Intelligence in Gaming and Who Can Benefit.” They’re referring to competitors offering AI game creations at lower costs or for free.
Also read: Roblox makes changes, loses $9 billion
Roblox is shifting AI costs to creators
According to a Morgan Stanley report, more than 100,000 people have used Build in three test markets.
The most telling number is who they are: 71% have never used Roblox Studio, the company’s traditional game-building software. Build is recruiting new makers, not just accelerating existing ones.
This growth comes at a cost. Morgan Stanley believes that investors already expect Roblox to pay for the training of its artificial intelligence model. The cost of running each prompt (called inference) falls on the creator.
It’s a measure of the newcomers that Roblox wants to keep the most. The note says the key question is whether cheaper inference will allow Roblox to improve the build without raising the price.
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Roblox stock has lost more than two-thirds of its value
The question involves a battered stock. Roblox shares close at record high $141.56 Monday, September 29, 2025. $44.58 Closing of notes usage, starting Monday, October 5, 2026, approx. 69% reduce.
Shares remain well above all-time closing lows $23.19 Starting in May 2022. Still, most of the climb from the bottom is gone.
Roblox’s own security and quality fixes caused most of the damage. Earlier this year, it added age checks to limit contact between young children and older users, according to Reuters. It also restructured the recommendations to support long-lasting games rather than so-called “money grab” games.
While designed to protect users, prioritizing quality games over quick cash directly affects creators’ revenue and reduces overall player spending.
Both changes are aimed at creating a healthier platform, but spending is down first. Reuters confirmed that Friday, July 31, 2026, the stock had its worst day ever. Roblox just predicted that quarterly bookings will decline for the first time in four years.
Wall Street is divided. 17 of the 35 analysts tracked by Stock Analysis have given the stock an “a” rating purchase 18 people rated it a catch or Sell.
Morgan Stanley remains bullish Overweight rating (its purchased version) and $55 According to the comments, target. This means about twenty three% Upward, roughly above $49 Stock analysis tracks average targets.
Morgan Stanley’s own goal is to $170 The note’s rating history shows August 2025. The share price rose approx. 2% Wednesday, October 7, 2026, the day the note is released.
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Morgan Stanley sees discovery as the real prize
Analysts argue that making games is no longer an advantage when anyone can make them. “The winning platforms will be those that offer the right games to the right players,” they wrote.
According to the note, Roblox got an early start and data shows more than 14 million experiences have been built and played. This data can train artificial intelligence to build and recommend games.
It redefined July’s sell-off. The proposed changes hurting bookings are the same discovery engine that Morgan Stanley sees as a strength of Roblox. Build games will be ranked according to the same retention-based system, the press release states.
Shareholders have already paid for the discovery bet once. Build will only become a coming-of-age story if the engine can sort through the vast array of AI-made games and keep players coming back.
The risk is that a competitor has a bigger machine. The report expects other large consumer platforms and artificial intelligence leaders to compete for user-made games, and says Roblox must keep its tools evolving in step.
Video and music platforms went through this shift years ago, when cheap creations made attention a scarce asset. Gaming is now conducting this experiment.
Morgan Stanley said it will be watching whether Build’s first-time creators continue to build and how pricing changes as the cost of artificial intelligence falls.
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