A series of El Niño-fueled storms that closed roads, collapsed boardwalks and eroded beaches in Southern California over the summer and fall may also offer a glimmer of hope: The region’s fire season may be coming to an end, experts say.
U.S. Forest Service meteorologist Matt Shameson said rain coming on Wednesday could help put out another large and destructive fire that could soon break out in Southern California, just a week after a fire spread through a 570-acre hillside community in Orange County.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel have already brought 1 to 3 inches of rain this month across much of the Inland Empire and San Diego and Orange counties, and this week’s storm could calm the risk of wildfires for the rest of the fall, he said.
But in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, most of which are within a tenth of an inch of Rachel, another round of rain will be needed to eliminate the risk for the rest of the season, he said. Under the right conditions, light vegetation, including grasses and shrubs, can solidify and turn into viable tinder within a short period of time, especially during hot, dry Santa Ana winds, but that’s unlikely to happen before another rainfall event, Shamson said. He added that Santa Ana winds are not expected to be strong or widespread Friday into Saturday.
Shamson said Southern California’s fire season typically peaks in July and August, with an average daily probability of a major fire reaching about 22 percent. By October, that probability dropped to about 5%.
“Basically, once you get to mid-September, you’re going to need a Santa Ana wind event to start massive fires,” he said.
Recent history shows what happens when Santa Ana winds mix with late-season fires. Last week’s Upstate Fire destroyed seven structures in Orange County. In 2025, a fire broke out in Los Angeles. A few months ago, wildfires broke out in Ventura County.
The strongest Santa Ana winds usually arrive in the winter. If these winds are preceded by enough rainfall, the risk of fires is reduced. Shamson said it usually takes two rounds of widespread moderate to heavy rain to achieve this effect. Shamson said another storm is possible late next week, but it’s too early to tell.
David Acuña, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s battalion chief in Sacramento, warned that areas that don’t get steady precipitation could still be vulnerable regardless.
“I hate being a negative person,” he said. “It’s just a matter of me not wanting people to let their guard down.”
Historically strong El Niño conditions increase the likelihood of above-normal winter rainfall in Southern California, Shamson said, both increasing the likelihood of more storms and ensuring that storms are warmer and bring more precipitation.
The region also has more than normal remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms this year due to unusually warm sea surface temperatures caused by El Niño, coupled with warming from ocean heat waves and climate change. In addition to Rachel, Hurricane Marie brought rain to the area last month.
In fact, Shamson said, remnants of hurricanes and tropical storms have been arriving in Southern California over the past three or four years, whereas they normally would occur every five to 10 years. He said these storms help increase moisture levels in plants and soil, easing drought conditions, and the cumulative effect also reduces fire risk.
California received 22.61 inches of precipitation in the 2025-26 water year that ended Sept. 30, about 95 percent of the historical average, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Jay Lund, associate director of the UC Davis Watershed Science Center, wrote in a post on the California Water Blog that this follows near-average water volumes in 2023-24 and 2024-25, the longest near-average years since the 1990s. (Nonetheless, the state’s snowpack, which also plays a significant role in mitigating the fires, is still well below average.)
With this week’s rain, coupled with the prospect of a wet winter, some are now preparing for a different kind of wildfire threat: possible flooding and mudslides in burn scar areas.
Wildfires can make soil hydrophobic, with evaporating organic matter forming a waxy crust that repels water. When it rains, water runs off the surface instead of being absorbed.
As more El Niño storms hit the state, expected to begin in December, “we’re definitely concerned about whether this water can be moved safely or whether we’re going to get so much water at once that it creates a hazard,” Acuña said.
In response to this week’s storm, the Los Angeles Fire Department increased resources to help with rapids rescues and mudslide rescues, with special attention to burn scar areas, according to a news release from Mayor Karen Bass.
City crews also cleaned more than 31,000 catch basins and drainage systems and inspected and strengthened vulnerable hillsides and burned areas, including Pacific Palisade, Bass said in the statement.