Last year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil, put forests on the climate agenda. This month’s UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey, could do the same for the oceans, whose warming threatens not only food and energy security but also global survival.
MELBOURNE-For more than 30 years, Pacific island nations have issued the same warning at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference: warming oceans threaten not only food and energy security, but global survival itself. And almost every year, our danger has been treated as a regional problem, a challenge only in small remote islands and thus not warranting more than lip service from international leaders.
I wish I could say we were wrong. However, the climate destruction unfolding before us, compounded by the El Niño cycle and record-breaking ocean heat, proves that this crisis does not stop at coastlines.
Rising sea levels are swallowing up fertile farmland, displacing communities, and raising insurance premiums for families. Ocean warming threatens the energy grids and ports that power the world economy and maintain global supply chains. In the Arctic, 60% of coastal infrastructure, much of which is used for critical security activities, is vulnerable to erosion. In 2024, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the main fisheries and aquaculture centers that generate $21.5 billion in direct and indirect income annually, will experience a sea heat wave with temperatures almost 5 ° Celsius above normal, raising concerns about food insecurity.
Another overlooked factor is the ocean’s role as the largest carbon and heat sink on the planet, absorbing 30% of CO.2 emissions – like the world’s forests – and capture 90% of the excess heat generated by these emissions. But it pays a price: the most heat-sensitive ecosystems are underwater, and every part of the rate of global warming exceeds the 1.5 ° C target set by the Paris climate agreement damages more. By 2050, under a 2°C warming scenario, losses caused by ocean-related disasters could reach $56 billion, demonstrating the hard limits of adaptation and the urgent need to keep warming close to 1.5°C.
This is not a trivial matter. They represent major global economic and security risks. And they have existential implications for Pacific island countries: staying below the 1.5°C limit is a matter of survival, which is why we fought so hard to secure the Paris climate agreement and, in the years to come, stay close to that target.
Last year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil, put forests at the center of the climate agenda. This month’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey, could be done for the oceans. Political support for ocean-based climate action is strong: more than 100 countries signed a letter stating that the ocean is a core part of the Paris climate agreement and should be treated as such at COP31.
In practice, this means that negotiators must clearly include the ocean in discussions about reducing emissions, building resilience, and climate finance. In addition, the latest ocean science should inform the next global stocks, which will increase the level of accountability for climate action by creating ocean-related commitments that must be reported by countries and measured standards.
Every country with a coastline must participate in the Blue NDC Challenge, a group of governments committed to achieving national climate goals through ocean-based solutions. The ocean can help accelerate the energy transition with the greening of ports and shipping, as well as the development of offshore renewable energy. Of course, the blue whale in the room is the oil and gas industry. A rapid transition away from fossil fuels is the most effective way to reduce pressure on coral reefs, fisheries, coastal economies, and the local communities that depend on them.
Investment flows should reflect rising ambitions. Current funding for marine protection is about $1.8 billion per year, leaving a gap of about $14 billion. And while many proven solutions are ready to scale, coalitions must be mobilized to ensure that marine protected areas can generate revenue through sustainable fishing and tourism.
For too long, the message of the Pacific island countries has not been heard. COP31 offers an opportunity to change that. Ocean health will shape the future for everyone. Now is the time for everyone to accept that these assets are shared assets—and shared responsibilities.